Sweden scrapped its electric car bonus on 8 November 2022, without warning. The klimatbonus had been worth up to SEK 70,000 (£5,300), and any car ordered from that day on got nothing. Thirteen months later Germany did almost the same thing. On Saturday 16 December 2023 its economy ministry said the Umweltbonus, up to €4,500 (£3,800) of public money on top of a carmaker discount, would take no new applications after the following day.
Sweden pulled its support when about a third of its new cars were electric, Germany when 18% were. The UK sits between the two: 26.2% of new cars sold here this year have been fully electric, to the end of September. Neither market collapsed, but both stalled. Germany's electric share fell by more than a quarter and took two years to recover. Sweden's, after growing by around ten points a year, stood still for three. Each got moving again only when new policy arrived.
This is the second stop on The Road to Norway, our series on the markets further along the road to an all-electric new-car market than the UK. It runs until 23 October, when the government's consultation on weakening the UK's zero emission vehicle mandate closes. The first stop, France, showed how fast demand rises when the money goes to private buyers. Sweden and Germany show what happens when it is taken away, which is the choice the UK is now weighing.
- United Kingdom: 28.3% (September 2026), you are here.
- France: 41.7% (Sep 2026).
- Germany: 34.5% (Sep 2026), this stop.
- Sweden: 49% (Sep 2026), this stop.
- Belgium: 50.9% (Sep 2026).
- Netherlands: 52.8% (Sep 2026).
- Denmark: 88.8% (Sep 2026).
- Norway: 98.8% (Sep 2026).
The rush, then the drop
The chart below shows each country's monthly electric share from 2022 to 2024. Every cut looks the same: a rush to register before the deadline, a slump the month after, and then a level no higher than before.
Sweden reached 52.1% in December 2022, as cars ordered before the cut were delivered, then dropped to 29.0% in January. For the next two years the monthly share bounced between about 28% and 45% without heading anywhere. Over whole years it was 33.0% in 2022, 38.7% in 2023, 35.0% in 2024 and 36.5% in 2025. Sales of electric cars fell from 112,208 in 2023 to 94,333 in 2024.
Germany cut in three steps, and each one shows up in the chart. The bonus shrank on 1 January 2023, so December 2022 reached 33.2% and January fell to 10.1%. Company buyers lost it on 1 September 2023, so August reached 31.7% and September fell to 14.1%. After it closed entirely in December, January 2024 fell to 10.5%, and the share stayed between 11.9% and 16.5% for the rest of the year. Electric registrations fell 27% in 2024, and the share dropped from 18.4% to 13.5%, below where it had been in 2022.
So treat any record month just before a deadline with suspicion. It is demand borrowed from the months that follow.
Households walked away, fleets kept buying
In both countries it was private buyers who left, while company fleets mostly carried on. In Sweden, private buyers took 56% of new electric cars in 2022 and 33% in 2023, the first year without the bonus. Private leasing fell hardest, as lease prices rose to cover the lost bonus.
Germany's figures show the same thing from the other side. In January 2024, the first month with no bonus at all, private buyers registered 29.2% of all new cars in Germany. In September 2026, with a new subsidy aimed at households (more on that below), they registered 40.3%.
Fleets buy on tax and running costs, and keep buying when policy changes. Households buy on the price in front of them, and stop when it goes up. In the UK most new electric cars already go to fleets and company-car drivers, thanks to benefit-in-kind tax and salary sacrifice. Private buyers are the part of the market a withdrawal would hit first.
Why Sweden held its share and Germany didn't
Sweden lost buyers but held its share, while Germany lost both. The difference was what each country still had in place once the bonus had gone.
Sweden kept its malus, a higher vehicle tax for the first three years on new cars above 75 g/km of CO2. A petrol or diesel car stayed dearer to run than an electric one, bonus or no bonus, and electric company cars stayed cheaper to tax. Businesses took over from households in 2023, and when the whole market shrank in 2024, electric cars kept roughly the same slice of it.
Germany had nothing like it. Its annual vehicle tax has a CO2 element, but it is small next to Sweden's malus or France's purchase tax. With the bonus gone, almost nothing at the point of sale favoured an electric car, buyers went back to petrol and diesel, and the share fell below its 2022 level.
What it took to restart
Neither market recovered on its own. Sweden's share did not beat its 2023 level until 2026, three years on. Germany's did not get back above its 2023 level until 2025. In both, the turn came with new policy.
Germany introduced a 75% first-year write-off for electric company cars from July 2025, raised the price cap for the lowest company-car tax rate on electric cars to €100,000 (£85,000), and in January 2026 reintroduced a purchase subsidy, this time income-tested, with €3 billion (£2.6 billion) set aside to 2029. Buyers have responded. Two years ago the electric share was 13.5%. From January to September it was 27.2%, ahead of the UK's 26.2%, with 34.5% in September alone. Germany paid out €10 billion (£8.5 billion) in bonuses between 2016 and 2023. It is now paying again to rebuild demand it had already built once.
Sweden's fix was smaller and narrower. Since 18 March 2026, lower-income households in rural areas can claim SEK 1,300 (£100) a month for up to three years towards an electric car. Its share reached 49% in September.
The choice in front of the UK
The government is consulting, until 23 October, on cutting the ZEV mandate's 2030 target from 80% of new cars to 70%, 60% or 50%. The Electric Car Grant is the UK's version of the bonuses Sweden and Germany scrapped, but the mandate does more of the work. It obliges carmakers to sell electric cars here, and it is why they discount them to hit their targets. Cutting the target withdraws support just as a closed bonus does, only with more notice.
Sweden and Germany are a fair guide to the cost, because both pulled support at a share close to ours. In both, private buyers went first, and both needed years and fresh money to get growing again. A lower target would do to carmakers what a closed bonus did to buyers. It takes away the reason to act now, and the discounts the targets pay for would shrink with it.
The UK also stands to lose more than either country did. Neither Sweden nor Germany had a sales mandate of its own; their carmakers answered only to the EU's fleet CO2 rules. The mandate is the UK's one structural advantage over both, and it is what the consultation puts on the table. For private buyers, UK tax looks more like Germany's than Sweden's: first-year road tax on a typical family petrol car is a few hundred pounds, so without the mandate's discounts, little at the point of sale would favour going electric.
A stall would cost more than car sales. The battery plants at Sunderland and in Somerset are sized for an electric market at home, and every extra year of petrol and diesel sales adds cars that will still be on UK roads in the 2040s. Road transport produces around 80% of the nitrogen oxides measured at the roadside, and outdoor air pollution is linked to the equivalent of 29,000 to 43,000 adult deaths a year in the UK.
If you are buying now, the grant is still there: our list of the cheapest EVs after the grant ranks cars by the price you actually pay.
Our prediction
If the government cuts the 2030 target to 50%, private electric car registrations in the UK will stop growing for two to three years after the announcement, as they did in Sweden and Germany. The figure to watch is private buyers in SMMT's monthly release, which we report in each monthly sales round-up. If it keeps growing after a cut, we were wrong, and we will say so here.
Next stop: Belgium
Belgium passed 50% electric in September, carried by company cars. Next we look at what that fleet-led growth does for private and used-car buyers, and who it leaves out.
Sources: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt monthly and annual press releases, 2022 to 2026 (Germany); Mobility Sweden, SCB and Trafikanalys (Sweden); SMMT (UK); Swedish Government Offices (klimatbonus decision, 8 November 2022; elbilspremie, March 2026); German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs (Umweltbonus closure, 16 December 2023); European Alternative Fuels Observatory consumer monitor (Swedish private buyers); Department for Transport, ZEV mandate review consultation (2026); UK Health Security Agency (air pollution mortality burden); Defra (roadside nitrogen oxides). German 2026 figures for January to June are national registrations as published at European level; July to September are KBA's releases. Sterling conversions use exchange rates at the start of October 2026.
Questions and answers
When did Sweden stop its electric car bonus?
On 8 November 2022, with immediate effect: any car ordered from that day got nothing. The klimatbonus had paid up to SEK 70,000 (£5,300) towards a new electric car. Sweden ended it when about a third of its new cars were fully electric, arguing that electric cars had reached price parity.
When did Germany end the Umweltbonus?
Germany cut it in three steps: a smaller bonus from 1 January 2023, no bonus for company buyers from 1 September 2023, and closure to all new applications on 17 December 2023, announced the day before. At that point 18.4% of new cars in Germany were fully electric.
What happened to electric car sales after the subsidies ended?
In Germany the electric share fell from 18.4% in 2023 to 13.5% in 2024 and electric registrations fell 27%. It did not get back above its 2023 level until 2025. In Sweden the share held between 35% and 39% for three years rather than falling, but the number of electric cars sold dropped from 112,208 in 2023 to 94,333 in 2024, and private buyers' share of new electric cars fell from 56% to 33%.
Why did Sweden hold its electric share when Germany did not?
Sweden kept its malus, a higher vehicle tax for the first three years on new cars with high CO2 emissions, and favourable tax on electric company cars. Germany had no comparable tax on petrol and diesel cars, so once the bonus went, little at the point of sale favoured an electric car.
How did Germany and Sweden get electric car sales growing again?
With new policy. Germany introduced a 75% first-year write-off for electric company cars from July 2025, a higher price ceiling for the lowest company-car tax rate and, from January 2026, an income-tested purchase subsidy with €3 billion (£2.6 billion) to 2029. In September 2026 34.5% of new cars in Germany were electric. Sweden introduced an income-tested monthly payment for lower-income rural households from 18 March 2026 and reached 49% in September 2026.
What do Sweden and Germany tell us about the UK ZEV mandate review?
Both withdrew support at an electric share close to the UK's 26%, both lost private buyers first, and both needed new policy and new spending to get growing again: Germany's share took two years to recover and Sweden's stood still for three. The ZEV mandate does more to support electric car sales in the UK than the Electric Car Grant, and the consultation closing on 23 October 2026 weighs cutting its 2030 target from 80% to as low as 50%, which would be a withdrawal of support announced in advance.
Founder of EVcarsguide. Web technologist and data specialist tracking the UK EV market.
